Election Calc

Election Results

Measure U Election Results Analysis

Alan Fletcher 12/6/24

The Measure-U Election results look very clear : 71% NO 29% YES.

But are these results representative of the County as a whole?

In this table I present an analysis of the votes, casting a wider and wider net.

"Unconsidered" in each case is calculated as "Total - (Yes + No)"

Total ballots 27127 ( Turnout 72% )
Registered Voters 37929 Estimated Eligible Voters 51168

Method	Yes	No	Unconsidered	The total used to calculate the percentages
Row 1	29% 7474	71% 17934	N/A	Those who voted Yes or No 25408
Row 2	28% 7474	66% 17934	6% 1719	Those who voted, but skipped measure U 27127
Row 3	20% 7474	47% 17934	33% 12521	Registered Voters 37929
Row 4	15% 7474	35% 17934	50% 25760	Estimated Eligible Voters 51168
Row 5	14% 7474	33% 17934	53% 28792	Estimated Total Voting-Age Population 54200
Row 6	11% 7474	26% 17934	63% 42755	Total Population 68163

Note that the demographics - in terms of population, registered voters, and the percentage who vote - are heavily skewed to white voters.

Lake County Demographics Overview

This section provides an overview of the demographics of Lake County, California, relevant to the election analysis.

Total Population

The total population of Lake County is approximately 68,163 residents.

Population of Voting Age (18 or Older)

The voting-age population (18 years or older) is approximately 54,200 individuals.

Ethnic and Racial Composition and Voter Registration

The following table outlines the ethnic and racial composition of the voting-age population in Lake County, along with the estimated percentage and number of registered voters within each group:

Ethnic/Racial Group	Population (Voting Age)	% of Voting-Age Population	Estimated % Registered	Estimated Number Registered
White	40,650	75%	74%	30,090
Hispanic or Latino	10,840	20%	46%	4,986
Native American	1,626	3%	55%	895

This combined information highlights both the size of each demographic group within the voting-age population and their estimated voter registration rates. Understanding these figures is crucial for analyzing voter turnout and the potential impact of each group on election outcomes.

Citizenship Status of Voting-Age Population

The citizenship status among the voting-age population is as follows:

Citizens: Approximately 50,000 individuals
Green Card Holders (Permanent Residents): Approximately 3,000 individuals
Undocumented Residents: Approximately 1,200 individuals

These numbers provide context for the total eligible voters and help explain the proportion of the population that may participate in elections.

Sources

U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Decennial Census
U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS) 2021 Estimates
California Secretary of State, Voter Registration Statistics
Pew Research Center, Voter Registration Rates by Race/Ethnicity

This analysis was performed by me, with the assistance of ChatGPT o4-provisional.
The chat log is at chatgpt.com
Note that half-way down the log that I change the output from converstational, to generating this web page (in a combination of PHP, HTML and CSS.) You can view the entire web page in your browser using its "View Source" option.